Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-28 0.096098 0.109119 0.123228 0.139650 0.158238 0.178624 0.202681
2026-01-04 0.074702 0.091390 0.110825 0.135124 0.164692 0.199508 0.243634
2026-01-11 0.060437 0.079171 0.102480 0.133596 0.174048 0.224872 0.293625
2026-01-18 0.050178 0.070119 0.096525 0.134024 0.185907 0.255192 0.354841
2026-01-25 0.039754 0.059082 0.086245 0.127157 0.187220 0.272209 0.401767
2026-02-01 0.031385 0.049468 0.076361 0.119205 0.185751 0.285240 0.445518
2026-02-08 0.025638 0.042737 0.069572 0.114665 0.188554 0.304939 0.502520
2026-02-15 0.021015 0.036953 0.063284 0.109837 0.190106 0.322974 0.560051
2026-02-22 0.018373 0.033986 0.061070 0.111316 0.202238 0.359970 0.654979
2026-03-01 0.015360 0.029832 0.056138 0.107252 0.204125 0.379910 0.723846
2026-03-08 0.013044 0.026543 0.052200 0.104309 0.207525 0.403023 0.802320
2026-03-15 0.011181 0.023792 0.048810 0.101813 0.211331 0.427434 0.887306
2026-03-22 0.010030 0.022324 0.047786 0.104072 0.225413 0.474885 1.028069
2026-03-29 0.008739 0.020323 0.045344 0.102998 0.232527 0.509701 1.149425
2026-04-05 0.007775 0.018866 0.043811 0.103642 0.243534 0.554651 1.300984
2026-04-12 0.007020 0.017749 0.042845 0.105413 0.257450 0.608392 1.482204
2026-04-19 0.005989 0.015765 0.039530 0.101078 0.256389 0.628200 1.588368
2026-04-26 0.005051 0.013831 0.035989 0.095537 0.251430 0.638097 1.672670
2026-05-03 0.004381 0.012460 0.033603 0.092491 0.252217 0.662164 1.797154
2026-05-10 0.003789 0.011183 0.031229 0.089038 0.251340 0.681957 1.914415
2026-05-17 0.003480 0.010641 0.030723 0.090597 0.264329 0.740134 2.145801
2026-05-24 0.003039 0.009625 0.028719 0.087551 0.263910 0.762261 2.281305
2026-05-31 0.002684 0.008798 0.027106 0.085349 0.265543 0.790423 2.439602